Prof. Arun Kumar on Demonetization Largely Right Partly Wrong
I almost entirely agree with Prof Arun Kumar regarding BLACK ECONOMY Three forms of Black Money – Black Income, Black Money & Black Wealth – and that GoI had attacked the pigmiest of all Black Money - not even 2% of GDP. His estimates of 62% of GDP also matches with BR Lal late JD of CBI calculations who too estimated black money in 50% to 60% of GDP range. He did mention about Under Reporting of Sales and Over Invoicing – but even the bigger are Moneylenders ‘Who Run Parallel Economy’ and Multi-Level Trade operating millions of fake companies ‘Laundering Black Money to White.’
Indian Economy is MISMANAGED and in DEEP TROUBLE
1.] Liability of Center & States in 30 months increased by Rs.25,00,000 Cr by November08, 2016, 70% Contributed by Center.
2.] Cheque Clearances declined from Rs.133,96,066 Cr in 2007-08 which was almost200% of GDP High Growth Year in all respects to Rs.81,86,079 Cr or 55% of GDP. Credit Card use helped in Generation of Black Money.
3.] India registered Highest Growth rate when average Lending Rate was 14% and Fixed depositors were earning 8.5% interest rate. Reduction of Lending Rate to 9% and Fix Deposits to 7.5% - resulted in Bank Deposit growth of 22% to less than 9% - Just about 1.25% reduction resulted in Loss of Rs.1,00,000 Cr annual loss to Depositors & Banks each – Together with Reduction in Deposit Growth – 30 months IMPACT On Economy is Rs.5 Lakh Cr and Rs.15 lakh cr = Rs.20 Lakh Cr.
4.] Foreign Trade was down – Impacting Economy by about $170b directly and more indirectly – say Rs.14,00,000 Cr.
5.] Two Drought Years and Third ‘Note Bandi Year’ Food Prices were Unchecked Shot Up say 30% and Farmers income drop 20%. Rs.50 Lakh Black Economy in 30 months.
6.] Flopped ‘Make in India’ – Exports of Engineering Goods declined from $64b to $60b and Electronics Goods from $7.8b to $5.9b in two years. Indian industry didn’t create IPR and exports are ‘Nothing in Value Addition Terms’ – say $20b which is not even 1% of GDP.
7.] Organized sector Employment was ZERO in Vajpayee Rule – S. Gurumurthi LIED to AAJ TAK, is Zero this time also. JUST 48m or 4% of Population is Engaged in Organized sector and Even in this Over 50% are in Class IV Jobs not in IT Bracket – NOTHING WRONG WHEN 2% PAY IT. GoI didn’t INVEST IN MSMEs, Rural & Agro Industries BUT WANT TO MILK CALVES. Farmers are not Funded to STORE their produce, process and market it.
8.] Arun Jaitley was MISLED – FUNDED Ambani & Adani and Wasteful Projects – Central Government Delayed Projects Rs.8 Lakh Cr, 50% Piyush Goyal That SANK The Economy.
Challenge is to Create WHITE ECONOMY – SBP Had Clear Prog.
Ravinder Singh, Inventor & Consultant, INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES AND PROJECTS
Y-77, Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016, India. Ph; 091- 9871056471, 9718280435, 9650421857
Ravinder Singh* is a WIPO awarded inventor specializing in Power, Transportation,
Smart Cities, Water, Energy Saving, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Technologies and Projects
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