India needs to leverage both US and Russia
ASHOK B SHARMA
President
Putin has come and gone. President Obama is expected here as chief
guest at the Republic Day celebrations. The emerging economic power,
India, being strategically located has become a favoured choice for both
Russia and US. Russia faces a compulsion in the global geopolitics
after being expelled from G 8 over its action in annexing Crimea.
Further the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner MH 17 allegedly by
the rebels in eastern Ukraine further aggravated the situation with the
Western bloc declaring sanctions against Russia. Though the situation
does not seems to be an absolute return to the cold war era, but can be
viewed as a step towards a soft realignment in the geopolitics.
The
moot issue here is where and how much India stands to gain? India has
already said that it cannot be a party to any sanctions against Russia.
The
US has already expressed its intention to act as a “pivot” and
“rebalance” in Asia-Pacific. With the plan to position itself in the
region, the US faces increasingly assertive role of China. Therefore,
partnership with India has become a necessity.
Defence
is one of the most critical areas where India seeks cooperation from
these two global powers. Manufacture of defence platforms and equipment
in the country through co-design, co-production and transfer of
technology is what the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks under
his ambitious ‘Make in India’ programme.
With
a number of acquisitions in the pipeline, the US is likely to become a
top supplier of defence products to India, displacing Russia. However,
Prime Minister Modi has clarified saying: “Even as India’s options have
increased today, Russia will remain our most important defence partner.
We have conducted joint exercises across all three wings of the Armed
Forces in the last six months.”
Even today 60
per cent to 70 per cent of India’s defence platforms are from Russia. It
is the first country to come for co-production and co-development of
defence products with India.
Recently
Russia has entered into a military pact with Pakistan for the first
time to exchange of views and information on politico-military issues as
well as issues related to strengthening of mutual trust and
international security. It has, however, clarified that this is not
directed against India, but to empower Pakistan to deal with the
terrorist in Afghanistan.
India-US
Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI) was inked two years ago
when the UPA government led by Dr Manmohan Singh was in power. It was
the initiative of the then US Defence Secretary Leon E Panetta that was
subsequently shepherded by the then US Defence Secretary Ash Carter. The
DTTI has on its agenda proposals for co-production and co-development.
Though the new framework for the US-India defence relationship has been
extended to next 10 years beyond July 2015 during the recent visit of
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel to India, the net results of actual
cooperation is yet to be seen on the ground.
One
need to understand what US really means by technology transfer. Ash
Carter had earlier spelt it out by saying: “We’ve adapted our system in
ways that will speed our release process for India, especially in the
Department of Defence, recognising that for all partners this process is
subject to case-by-case review and there will always be some
technologies that we will keep to ourselves.” This shows that US will
not be liberal in technology transfer.
However
for funding of innovative projects, Carter had said : ‘We’ll ensure that
those innovative projects receive priority funding. This is an approach
we’ve only ever taken with the United Kingdom and Australia and now
India will join that company.’
Another
aspect that draws US closer to India in defence cooperation is the
growing Indian market. Since 2008, over $9 billion in defence contracts
have been signed between US and India compared with less than $500
million for all the years before.
During
Prime Minister Modi’s recent talks with President Obama in Washington,
it was agreed to go ahead with reinvigoration of the political-military
dialogue between the two countries and expand its role to serve as a
wider dialogue on export licencing, defence and strategic cooperation.
It has been decided to set up a Task Force to expeditiously evaluate and
decide on unique projects and technologies aimed at enhancing India’s
defence industry and military capabilities. US agreed to cooperate in
setting up of National Defence University in India. Both US and India
agreed to upgrade the existing bilateral Malabar naval exercise.
Expressing concern over the rise of China in Asia-Pacific, both India
and US, India and US agreed to work closely with countries in the region
through consultations, dialogues and joint exercises. India-Japan-US
trilateral will be raised to the level of foreign ministers.
However,
playing to Prime Minister Modi’s homeland security concerns, President
Obama pledged to help India counter the threat of improvised explosive
devices with information and technology. India is eager to purchase
US-made mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles.
India
and US would co-produce and co-develop the next generation Javelin
anti-tank missile. According to Hagel ‘This is an unprecedented offer
that we have made only to India and no one else.’ Javelin is a
man-portable, fire-and forget, anti-tank missile employed by dismounted
infantry to defeat current and future threat armoured combat vehicles.
While for the Javelin project US will partner only with India, there are
several other defence projects US has with other countries,
particularly with Australia, a strategic country in the Indo-Pacific
region and with UK.
During
President Putin’s recent visit, Russia has, however, agreed to fully
manufacture one of its most advanced helicopters in India which includes
the possibility of exports from India. The helicopter is both for
civilian and military use. India and Russia will increase collaboration
in joint design, development, manufacturing and marketing of
technology-driven products. The two countries have already moved to a
phase of joint design and development of defence systems.
In
areas of energy security, India and Russia signed a Strategic Vision
for Strengthening Cooperation in Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy that
stipulates carrying forward the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Projects by
setting up 10 more nuclear reactors and manufacture of equipment and
components in India. Australia has already agreed to supply uranium to
India to be used as feedstocks.
India
stands much to gain by effecting a free trade agreement with the
propose Eurasian Union and after the proposed International North-South
Transport Corridor is operationalised. Indian investors see greenfield
opportunities in Russia’s hydrocarbons and natural resources.
Possibilities of a gas pipeline from Russia to India can be explored.
The India-Russia bilateral trade can see a quantum jump from the
existing level of $15 billion. Prime Minister Modi has appealed to
Russia to make direct sale of rough diamonds to India and has urged
Russian traders to trade on Bharat Diamond Bourse. India can thus become
a hub for diamond polishing and exports.
Russia
faces militancy and terrorism in Chechnya and India has similar
problems from across the border. This brings the two countries closer in
fight against terrorism. Russia and US can be valued partners for us.
It depends upon India how it can leverage both to meet its needs.
(Ashok
B Sharma is an Independent Senior Columnist writing on Strategic &
Policy Issues in several international and national newspapers and
magazines. He can be reached at ashokbsharma@gmail.com His mobile phone no - 09810902204)
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