Urbanization, Demographic Transition, and the Growth of Cities in India, 1870-2020

Urbanization, Demographic Transition, and the Growth of Cities in India, 1870-2020

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Why is India urbanizing slowly? Why do some cities grow faster than others? This paper examines the nature of urbanization and urban growth in India since the late 19th century against the backdrop of the unfolding demographic transition. It argues that (a) Urbanization within India exhibits a tight relationship with economic growth at the regional level (b) The demographic divergence between rural and urban natural growth rates since the 1970s that is attributed to stagnant agricultural productivity and rural literacy levels in large parts of India has slowed down the pace of urbanization, especially in the Northern hinterlands (c) City population growth rates peaked in the 1980s and will see a marked deceleration in the coming decades with substantial variations driven by investments in specific sectors such as Information & Technology (d) Human capital externalities in a period of demographic transition draw in migrants but also reduce fertility such that its relationship with city growth rates, as observed in Indian data is mixed (e) Labour mobility in India is high but is mostly male-dominated, semi-permanent, and remittance-based in nature leading to masculine urbanization with important implications for urban growth and urbanization. By integrating the demographic transition with urban processes, this paper explains India’s relatively slow pace of urbanization, the inter-city variation in population growth rates and the paradox of faster urban growth combined with slower urbanization in the North relative to the South.