Dear
All,
Advance
Estimates of National Income 2013-14
(Real
GDP growth is estimated at 4.9% in 2013-14 as against 4.5% in
2012-13)
Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2013-14 is
is estimated at
Rs.57.5 lakh crore, as against
the first revised estimate of GDP
for the year 2012-13 of Rs.54.8 lakh crore. The growth in GDP
during 2013-14 is estimated at
4.9% as compared to the growth rate of 4.5% in 2012-13. While GDP at factor cost at current prices in the
year 2013-14 is likely to attain a level of Rs.105.4 lakh crore, showing a growth
rate of 12.3% over the first revised estimate of
GDP for the year 2012-13 of Rs.93.9 lakh crore.
Agriculture—
The agriculture, forestry and fishing
sector is likely to show a growth of 4.6% in its GDP during 2013-14, as against
the previous year’s growth rate of 1.4%. The production of foodgrains is
expected to grow by 2.3% as compared to decline of 0.8% in the previous
agriculture year. The production of cotton and sugarcane is expected to grow by
6.7% and 1.1% as compared to decline of 2.8% and 5.5% respectively in the
previous agriculture year. . While amongst the horticultural
crops, production of
fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 3.9% and
4.1% during the year 2013-14 as compared to previous agriculture
year.
Industry—
The estimated growth in the
‘manufacturing’ ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas and water
supply’, and ‘construction’
is estimated to
be (-)
0.2%, (-) 1.9%, 6% and 1.7%, respectively, during 2013-14 as compared
to growth
of 1.1%, (-) 2.2%, 2.3% and 1.1%, respectively, in 2012-13. According
to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing
and electricity registered growth rates of (-)2.2%, (-)0.6% and 5.4%,
respectively during April-November, 2013-14, as compared to the growth rates of
(-)1.6%, 0.8% and 4.5%, respectively during April-November, 2012-13. The key
indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel
consumption have registered growth rates of 3.7% and 0.5%, respectively, during
April-December, 2013-14.
Services—
The estimated growth in GDP for the
trade, hotels, and transport and communication sectors during 2013-14 is placed
at 3.5% as against growth of 5.1% in the previous year. This is mainly on account of decline of 18.4% in the sales of commercial
vehicles during April-December 2013 as compared to decline of 2% during April to
December 2012-13. Cargo handled at major sea ports increased by 1.9% during April-December, 2013-14
while passengers and cargo handled
by civil aviation increased by
8.2% and 0.9% respectively during
April-November, 2013-14. However, financing, insurance, real estate and
business services, is expected to
show a growth rate of 11.2% during 2013-14 as compared to growth rate of 10.9%
in 2012-13, on account of 15.9% growth in aggregate deposits and 14.5% growth in
bank credit as on December 2013 (against the respective growth rates of 11% and
15.1% in the
corresponding period of previous year). The growth rate of 'community, social
and personal services' during 2013-14 is estimated to be
7.4%.
GDP
at Factor Cost (at constant 2004-05 prices) by economic
activity
Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from CSO
Note:
1st RE: First Revised Estimate; 2nd RE: Second Revised
Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate
National
Income— The net
national income (NNI) at factor cost, at 2004-05 prices is likely to be Rs.49.3
lakh crore during 2013-14, as against the previous year's first revised estimate
of Rs.47.3
lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth
rate of 4.2% in 2013-14 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 3.4%.
While, the net national income (NNI) at factor cost
at current prices is anticipated to be Rs.92.4 lakh crore during 2013-14, as
compared to Rs.82.6 lakh crore
during 2012-13, showing a rise of 11.9%.
Per
Capita Income—
The per capita income in real terms (at
2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is likely to attain a level of Rs.39, 961 as compared to the first
revised estimate for the year 2012-13 of Rs.38, 856. The growth rate in per
capita income is estimated at 2.8% during 2013-14, as against the previous
year's estimate of 2.1%. While, the per capita income at current prices during
2013-14 is estimated to be Rs.74,
920 as compared to Rs.67, 839
during 2012-13, showing a rise of 10.4%.
Gross
Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) –
The GFCF at
current prices is estimated at Rs.32.2 lakh crore in 2013-14 as
against Rs.30.7 lakh crore in
2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs.20.1 lakh crore in 2013-14 as
against Rs.20 lakh crore in
2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and
constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 28.5% and 32.5%,
respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4% and 33.9%,
respectively in 2012-13. The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices
has gone down from 2.6% in 2012-13 to 2.1% in
2013-14.
Private
Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) —
The PFCE at
current prices is estimated at Rs.64.7 lakh crore in 2013-14 as
against Rs.57.7 lakh crore in
2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated atRs.36.9
lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs.35.5 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms
of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05)
prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 57.1% and 59.8%, respectively, as against
the corresponding rates of 57.1% and 60.1%, respectively in
2012-13.
Government
Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) – The GFCE at
current prices is estimated at Rs.13.7 lakh crore in 2013-14 as
against Rs.11.9 lakh crore in
2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs.7.0 lakh
crore in 2013-14 as against Rs.6.6 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms
of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05)
prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 12.1% and 11.3%, respectively, as against
the corresponding rates of 11.8% and 11.2%, respectively in
2012-13.
Warm
regards,
Dr. S P
Sharma
Chief Economist
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